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Human Growth and Development / Unit 1   HGD 0053 worked example, 60 to 90 seconds

Correlation and Causation

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The idea

A correlation shows that two variables move together, but it cannot show that one causes the other. A third variable can drive both: people who eat breakfast cereal may differ in other habits that explain their heart health. People also see correlations that are not there. Belief that a full moon changes behaviour is an illusory correlation: a review of nearly forty studies found no relationship, yet confirmation bias keeps noticing the cases that fit.

In practice

Violent video games and aggression rising together in the same children, with some third factor possibly behind both.

Where people slip

The misconception is that a correlation shows cause. Only an experiment, which manipulates one variable and holds the rest constant through random assignment, can show cause and effect. Illusory correlations do real harm too: they help sustain prejudice about groups of people.

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