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Rules That Hedge

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State

With probability, a rule can say "usually": all-or-nothing rules become statements of how strongly a symptom shifts belief.

Show

Yellowing occurs in 8 of 10 overwatered plants, 2 of 10 healthy — numbers a botanist can stand behind; Bayes' rule does the shifting.

Watch for

The succulent stops being a scandal: its autumn yellowing is priced into the likelihoods instead of breaking the system.