Best Guess Is Not Best Act
This video presents the same text shown beside it, spoken and on screen. It adds nothing the text does not say.
State
Choosing an action under uncertainty means weighing every world the action might land in — not picking the likeliest world and acting as if it were certain.
Show
Rain sits at 0.3, the likeliest morning is dry — and nearly everyone carries the umbrella anyway, rightly.
Watch for
The two possible mistakes are nothing alike, and likeliest-world thinking is blind to that.