"Act on the Likeliest Outcome"
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Acting on the likeliest outcome discards the stakes and the sizes of the probabilities — it decides identically at 51 percent and at 99.
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Unneeded backups, unneeded insurance, unneeded fire exits: all "wasted" in the likeliest world, all worth their price.
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For even stakes the policy often matches the right answer — which is exactly how it survives.