Artificial Intelligence / Unit 10 AI 0579 short lesson, about 20 seconds
"The Curve Tells You Where It's Going"
Captions available
The idea
Extrapolating a capability curve is a bet that the future resembles the past — exactly as good as that bet, in both directions, and no substitute for naming a mechanism.
In practice
The optimist draws the recent slope through disputed walls; the pessimist draws the plateau through a history of decade-scale surprises.
Where people slip
Both are the likeliest-world error performed on a chart.
Your place on the trail
Every lesson rests on earlier ones and opens later ones. Tap any to jump.
Unlocks
- Nothing yet depends on this.
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