"The Curve Tells You Where It's Going"
This video presents the same text shown beside it, spoken and on screen. It adds nothing the text does not say.
State
Extrapolating a capability curve is a bet that the future resembles the past — exactly as good as that bet, in both directions, and no substitute for naming a mechanism.
Show
The optimist draws the recent slope through disputed walls; the pessimist draws the plateau through a history of decade-scale surprises.
Watch for
Both are the likeliest-world error performed on a chart.
Builds on
Unlocks
- Nothing yet depends on this.