Artificial Intelligence / Unit 10 AI 0577 short lesson, about 20 seconds
Forecasts Are Extrapolations
Captions available
The idea
Forecasts about artificial intelligence are themselves predictions from past distributions — and every lesson about extrapolation applies to them in full.
In practice
Seventy years of confident timelines, wrong in both directions: winters called permanent, springs called imminent.
Where people slip
Scale curves rewarding extrapolation and walls of disputed yield are both real — neither settles the other.
Your place on the trail
Every lesson rests on earlier ones and opens later ones. Tap any to jump.
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