The Transposed Conditional
This video presents the same text shown beside it, spoken and on screen. It adds nothing the text does not say.
State
Swapping "the probability of the evidence, given innocence" for "the probability of innocence, given the evidence" is the transposed conditional — different fractions of different rooms.
Show
In the clinic, 36 of 40 versus 36 of 132; in court, the same swap is called the prosecutor's fallacy.
Watch for
On hearing any conditional probability, ask which room is the denominator — three seconds, families of error prevented.
Builds on
Unlocks
- Nothing yet depends on this.