Artificial Intelligence / Unit 6 AI 0304 short lesson, about 20 seconds
The Transposed Conditional
Captions available
The idea
Swapping "the probability of the evidence, given innocence" for "the probability of innocence, given the evidence" is the transposed conditional — different fractions of different rooms.
In practice
In the clinic, 36 of 40 versus 36 of 132; in court, the same swap is called the prosecutor's fallacy.
Where people slip
On hearing any conditional probability, ask which room is the denominator — three seconds, families of error prevented.
Your place on the trail
Every lesson rests on earlier ones and opens later ones. Tap any to jump.
Builds on
Unlocks
- Nothing yet depends on this.
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