Evidence Shrinks the World
This video presents the same text shown beside it, spoken and on screen. It adds nothing the text does not say.
State
The probability of a claim given evidence is its share among only the cases where the evidence holds — prior becomes posterior, in the smaller room.
Show
Wake to rain: the panel shrinks to 300 rainy worlds, and market belief drops from 0.78 to 150 of 300 — 0.5.
Watch for
The market never changed overnight; the information did, and the drop is its exact price.