Artificial Intelligence / Unit 6 AI 0298 short lesson, about 20 seconds
Evidence Shrinks the World
Captions available
The idea
The probability of a claim given evidence is its share among only the cases where the evidence holds — prior becomes posterior, in the smaller room.
In practice
Wake to rain: the panel shrinks to 300 rainy worlds, and market belief drops from 0.78 to 150 of 300 — 0.5.
Where people slip
The market never changed overnight; the information did, and the drop is its exact price.
Your place on the trail
Every lesson rests on earlier ones and opens later ones. Tap any to jump.
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