Shrinking the World
This video presents the same text shown beside it, spoken and on screen. It adds nothing the text does not say.
State
A chance "given" a fact is an ordinary chance computed in a shrunken world: count only the cases where the fact holds, and take the share of those.
Show
A café logs 1,000 customers, 600 in the morning, 480 ordering coffee: given morning, coffee runs 480 of 600 — 0.8.
Watch for
Nothing about any customer changed — the operation is bookkeeping about information, not cause.