Artificial Intelligence / Unit 6 AI 0300 short lesson, about 20 seconds
Base-Rate Neglect
Captions available
The idea
Reading a flagged result from a 90-percent-accurate test as 90 percent certainty is base-rate neglect — accuracy answers a different question entirely.
In practice
"How often does the test flag carriers?" is a share of the 40; "how often are the flagged carrying?" is a share of the 132.
Where people slip
The questions face opposite directions; no manipulation of the first number alone answers the second.
Your place on the trail
Every lesson rests on earlier ones and opens later ones. Tap any to jump.
Builds on
Unlocks
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