Logic / Unit 7 Logic 353 short lesson, about 20 seconds
The Gambler's Fallacy
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The idea
Treating independent trials as if past outcomes change future odds.
In practice
Five heads running; "tails is due." The coin has no memory and owes no debts.
Where people slip
The near-miss: if the process might not be independent — a suspect coin — a streak is legitimate evidence about the coin. Different inference entirely.
Your place on the trail
Every lesson rests on earlier ones and opens later ones. Tap any to jump.
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