Logic / Unit 7 Logic 351 short lesson, about 20 seconds
Bayes' Theorem
Captions available
The idea
P(H given E) = P(E given H) × P(H) ÷ P(E). In English: updated belief = how well H predicts the evidence, weighted by how plausible H was, scaled by how common the evidence is overall.
In practice
The formula card, with each term labeled in plain words.
Where people slip
Bayes is the licensed way to reverse a conditional. The unlicensed way is video 346's warning.
Your place on the trail
Every lesson rests on earlier ones and opens later ones. Tap any to jump.
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