Skip to main content

Bayes' Theorem

This video presents the same text shown beside it, spoken and on screen. It adds nothing the text does not say.

State

P(H given E) = P(E given H) × P(H) ÷ P(E). In English: updated belief = how well H predicts the evidence, weighted by how plausible H was, scaled by how common the evidence is overall.

Show

The formula card, with each term labeled in plain words.

Watch for

Bayes is the licensed way to reverse a conditional. The unlicensed way is video 346's warning.