American Government / Unit 5 Gov 230 worked example, 60 to 90 seconds
Reading Election Returns
The idea
An election return is read by answering four questions in order: what share, what rule, what margin, and what threshold.
In practice
Take returns: Alvarez 48 percent, Barker 46, Cole 6. Question one, shares: the three sum to 100 — a complete field. Question two, the rule: under plurality, Alvarez wins with the most votes; note that 52 percent of voters chose someone else, so "majority support" cannot be claimed. Question three, the margin: 48 minus 46 is two points — compare it to any margin of error before calling a pre-election poll vindicated. Question four, the threshold: if the office requires a majority, nobody won; the top two advance to a runoff, and the runoff is a new election, not a formality. Presidential returns add a fifth question — the map: totals matter state by state, where 270 of 538 electoral votes decides, and a national percentage decides nothing.
Where people slip
Every claim in a returns story — "won," "majority," "landslide," "mandate" — is checkable against these questions; check before repeating.
Your place on the trail
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