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Principles of Macroeconomics / Unit 10   MAC 0907 short lesson, about 20 seconds

Rational and Adaptive Expectations

Captions available

The idea

Two accounts of expectations. Adaptive expectations say people learn from past experience and adjust gradually. Rational expectations say people use all available information, including announced policy, and act on it at once.

In practice

Under rational expectations, an anticipated policy is priced in before it arrives.

Where people slip

The two differ in speed, and therefore in whether policy can move real output.

Your place on the trail

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